Market Sizing &
Forecasting
Quantify your opportunity with precision. Gold Maple Voice delivers TAM/SAM/SOM analyses, 5-10 year forecasts, and granular segment sizing trusted by 300+ global brands for strategic investment decisions.
Three-Layer Sizing Pyramid
We don't just give you a number. We provide full transparency into the assumptions, data sources, and calculations behind every estimate.
TAM
Total Addressable Market
The total market demand for a product or service if there were no competitive or distribution constraints. The maximum opportunity available.
"What's the ceiling?"SAM
Serviceable Available Market
The segment of TAM your products/services can actually reach given your business model, distribution channels, and go-to-market strategy.
"What can we realistically serve?"SOM
Serviceable Obtainable Market
The realistic market share you can capture given competitive intensity, brand strength, pricing, and go-to-market investment.
"What's our achievable share?"Multi-Approach Triangulation
No single method is perfect. We combine multiple approaches to cross-validate and arrive at the most defensible market size estimate.
Top-Down
Begin with macroeconomic data, industry reports, and published statistics. Narrow down through successive filters to your specific category.
Established categories, regulatory data availability
Bottom-Up
Build from primary research: unit volume × price, customer interviews, channel checks, and purchase frequency analysis.
New categories, niche segments, B2B
Value Chain
Reconcile supply-side and demand-side data. Track product flow from manufacturer to end consumer, identifying discrepancies.
Distributed channels, import/export heavy categories
of our market sizing engagements use at least 2 of 3 approaches. 70% use all three.
Advanced Forecasting Models
From time-series to scenario-based monte carlo simulations. We match the model to your category dynamics and data availability.
Time Series
ARIMA, exponential smoothing, trend decomposition
5+ years historical dataMultivariate Regression
GDP, consumer confidence, category drivers
15+ economic indicatorsMonte Carlo
10,000+ simulations, probabilistic ranges
Bull/bear/base casesBass Diffusion
Innovation adoption, new category forecasting
Analogous market calibrationScenario-Based Forecasting
We don't give you one number. We give you a range: Optimistic, Base, and Conservative scenarios with explicit assumptions.
+18%
+11%
+6%
300+ Proprietary & Third-Party Sources
We don't rely on a single dataset. Gold Maple Voice synthesizes intelligence across the entire data landscape.
Validation & Confidence Intervals
We don't just present estimates. We quantify our confidence through rigorous back-testing and error analysis.
Established Categories
95% confidence interval
Emerging / New Categories
85% confidence interval
3-Year Forecasts
Based on 50+ client validations
Post-Live Validation
We don't disappear after delivering the report. We track actual market performance post-launch and validate our forecasts against reality.
of our 2022 forecasts were within predicted range
Market Sizing Deliverables
Beyond the number. Full transparency, interactivity, and strategic context.
Interactive Dashboard
Filter by segment, geography, channel, price tier. See underlying calculations in real-time.
Data Workbook
Raw data, model calculations, and assumption tables. Fully transparent, editable Excel/CSV files.
Executive Presentation
Board-ready synthesis with key findings, opportunity hotspots, and strategic implications.
Methodology Appendix
Complete data bibliography, source credibility scoring, and confidence interval calculations.
45+ Industries Sized & Forecasted
From fast-moving consumer goods to industrial machinery, medtech to fintech. We bring category-specific domain expertise.
Specialized practices in emerging technologies: EV, EdTech, FinTech, HealthTech, CleanTech, AI/ML
Private Equity Investment Decision
From "pass" to $200M acquisition
A leading PE firm was ready to walk away from a European medtech target. Their internal analysis suggested a mature, low-growth market. Gold Maple Voice conducted a bottoms-up sizing of previously unmeasured outpatient procedure segments—revealing a hidden $800M opportunity growing at 14% annually.
Trusted by 300+ Global Brands
"Gold Maple Voice's market sizing was the most defensible we've ever presented to our investment committee. The transparency into their methodology gave us confidence to move forward."
— Managing Director
Top 10 Global Private Equity Firm
"Their 5-year forecast for our new category launch was within 3% of actuals. We now use Gold Maple Voice as our exclusive partner for all new market entry sizing."
— VP, Corporate Strategy
Fortune 500 CPG Company
"The segment-level granularity was exceptional. We identified a $120M niche we hadn't even considered. This changed our entire product roadmap."
— Head of Strategy
Global MedTech Leader
Flexible Sizing Solutions
Market Sizing
TAM/SAM/SOM, 1 country, 1 category, 3-5 segments
- 4-6 week delivery
- Top-down + bottom-up
- Executive presentation
Sizing + Forecast
Full TAM/SAM/SOM + 5-year forecast, scenario analysis
- 8-10 week delivery
- All 3 triangulation methods
- Monte Carlo simulation
Multi-Country
Global sizing, 10+ countries, segment deep-dives
- 12-16 week delivery
- Primary research included
- Dedicated analyst team
What's your market opportunity worth?
Stop guessing. Start knowing. Gold Maple Voice delivers the defensible market intelligence you need for high-stakes investment decisions.
Market Sizing FAQs
What's the difference between TAM, SAM, and SOM?
TAM (Total Addressable Market): The entire revenue opportunity if 100% market share were achieved. SAM (Serviceable Available Market): The segment of TAM reachable through your existing channels and business model. SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): The realistic share you can capture given competition and go-to-market constraints.
How do you size markets with no published data?
We use multiple primary research techniques: supply-side interviews with manufacturers/distributors, demand-side surveys with end-users, analogous market analysis, and the "sum of segments" method—building the market from identifiable sub-components.
How far out can you forecast?
Our standard forecast horizon is 5 years. For stable categories, we extend to 10 years with wider confidence intervals. For highly dynamic categories (tech, emerging markets), we recommend 3-year forecasts with annual refresh.
Do you provide ongoing market tracking?
Yes. We offer annual or semi-annual market sizing updates, competitor market share tracking, and category health monitoring subscriptions.